Windows 10 battled Windows 7 last month for the title of Most Popular Windows, but again failed to land enough blows to put its opponent on the canvas.

According to U.S. analytics company Net Applications, Windows 10 slipped one-tenth of a percentage point in user share during November, falling back to 38.1% of all PCs and 43.8% of those running Windows. (The second number is larger than the first because Windows does not power all personal computers; in November, Windows ran 87% of the world’s systems. Most of the remainder ran macOS, Linux or Chrome OS.)

Meanwhile, Windows 7 lost five-tenths of a percentage point last month, just a third as much as in October. Windows 7 closed November on 38.9% of all personal computers and on 44.7% of all Windows PCs.

The gap between Window 7 and Windows 10 closed to less than a percentage point for the first time. Crossover – when Windows 10 accounts for a larger percentage of Windows PCs than Windows 7 – should occur this month, according to Computerworld‘s latest calculations using the average monthly movement of each. (These forecasts are not infallible. A month ago, Computerworld predicted the crossover would take place in November. It didn’t.)

Windows 7-Windows 10 crossover arrives late

Crossover will have come late to Windows 7 if the forecast becomes reality. The last significant transition from one Windows edition to another – from Windows XP to Windows 7 – reached crossover in August 2012, or 20 months before XP’s April 2014 support retirement. This month is just a scant 13 months before Windows 7’s scheduled retirement.

When Windows 7 reaches the end of its support lifecycle in January 2020, Net Applications’ current trend lines show the operating system should be powering almost 40%, while Windows 10 will be running 53%. The first number – the projected user share for Windows 7 at its public support retirement – has never been higher than it is now.